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Applied Statistics 2019 - Measuring and Analysing Time Series Data in Horizontal Time Dimension |
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Sunday, 22 September 2019 |
The presentation of Professor Pavle Sicherl at the international statistics conference Applied Statistics 2019 at Bled (Ribno), organised by the Slovenian Statistical Society, was entitled Measuring and Analysing Time Series Data in Horizontal Time Dimension - Insights Beyond Conventional Static AnalysisTime distance method adds innovative parallel generic system for analysing indicators in both static and time dimensions relevant across many indicators and many domains.
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Innovative framework for dynamic indicator analysis beyond GDP |
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Monday, 25 September 2017 |
Summary and conclusions
Well-being and development embody multidimensional and long-term experience, going much beyond the GDP. The focus in the media is especially in GDP growth rates. Over time, UNDP, OECD, and European Commission have participated in the conferences, indicator developments, and policy discussions of 'Beyond GDP Initiatives'. In the article, the analyses of beyond the GDP indicators are enriched by the application of the dynamic time distance methodology to complement the results of the usual mostly static tools.
With time distance methodology, a new perspective related to time does not replace but rather adds a new dimension to existing analysis across many variables, fields of concern, and units of comparison. Section 3 deals with the broadened concept of measuring and evaluating the magnitude of inequalities in two dimensions. LEVEL-TIME matrix in section 4 is an additional option of visualisation of time series data which helped to establish that GDP underestimated the scale of damage of the financial crisis in the EU for selected indicators. Section 5 emphasises the function of the time distance tool for monitoring implementation of targets parallel to other methods, with application to about 150 cases of EU2020 targets; as well as to measuring implementation of the UN Millennium Developments Goals that can be used also for the UN initiative of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This transparent and innovative method for monitoring implementation of targets at all levels is available but not yet utilised. It can bring a new easily understandable perception of the magnitude of the gap between the actual implementation and proclaimed targets at many levels: it can help governments, the civil society, and businesses in a broader understanding of continuous policy debate and necessary adjustments. The free software tool is available.
The empirical study exposes that GDP underestimated the scale of damage of the financial crisis as selected time matrices showed deterioration in many indicators: - Employment rate fell in 20 EU countries (71% of countries);
- Risk of poverty as percent of total population increased in 24 EU countries (86%);
- Income distribution worsened as Gini coefficient and income quartile share ratio increased in 25 EU countries (89% of countries);
- The most shocking conclusion is that the value of the share of growth fixed capital formation in GDP decreased in all 28 EU countries (100%!). This negatively affected the medium/long-term rate of growth of GDP.
Table 2 shows possible scheme and numerical values for analysing time distance deviations for implementation of five selected headline indicators towards the EU2020 for the entire EU and national targets. It is a clear example of simplicity with an overview of about 150 cases of EU2020 targets, showing the results of 5 selected EU2020 indicators, 28 countries, and the EU aggregate in one single table. Such time distance monitoring supervision could become a standard procedure in numerous other activities of the Commission on the national and local levels, e.g. monitoring and evaluation implementation of budgets, plans, projects, structural funds, etc.
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Recession in USA, EU, Japan - China became the Largest Economy |
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Monday, 04 September 2017 |
Overview of the decade of financial crisis in the world1. The damage of the world financial crisis needs to be studied in the broader perspective of beyond GDP framework. The fall in GDP underestimated the extent of damage of the financial crisis in the Triad (USA, EU, and Japan), as the greater part of the developed world. The deterioration of the employment rate and especially the fall in the share of the capital formation in GDP seriously hindered the medium to long-term capabilities of these economies, not to mention the worsening of inequalities.
Source: own calculations based on OECD (2017a, 2017b) and World Bank data (2017c) The detrimental effect of the world financial crisis beyond that on the GDP level and on the GDP growth rate has been felt with even greater intensity in the deterioration of employment rates, investment share in the GDP, in the increasing risk of poverty, and increasing income inequality. This has diminished the welfare and growth capabilities of these economies during the decade. 2. For the overall magnitude of GDP in constant prices China surpassed EU28 in 2015 and the USA in 2013; for the overall gross capital formation China surpassed EU28 in 2012 and the USA in 2010. The two opposing directions: the decline in the Triad and the high growth rate in China, changed the ranking between them, currently being 1. China, 2. EU28, 3. USA. However, one should add that the level of GDP per capita (as distinct from the overall GDP level) in the Triad is still much higher than in China. Yet, as an effective developing country, China is progressing fast also in this respect. 3. In addition to the usual statistical measures, such as percentages and growth rates, we shall describe the severity of the great recession with statistical measure S-time- distance, which measures distance in time (e.g. years) when the same level of the indicator has been reached. The time distance methodology is available in the large study (Sicherl, 2011a) and on www.gaptimer.eu. The paper (Sicherl, 2011b) published by the OECD Statistics Directorate can be freely downloaded from OECD at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5kg1zpzzl1tg-en. It can show how much time has been needed for the indicator to recover to the level before the crisis. The results are: to regain the 2007 level of GDP per capita, Japan needed 6 years, the USA 7 years and EU28 8 years; for the employment rate EU28 needed 8 years, while in 2015 the USA is still below its 2007 level; for the investment effort as the share in GDP the 2006 level has not been yet recovered in Triad: a delay of more than 10 years. This gives politicians and especially the general public unambiguous message that the financial crisis resulted in lost growth potential in this field for more than a decade. 4. While the 2015 and 2016 values of GDP per capita were in all three economies higher than the pre-crisis levels, the situation on the of investment effort is completely different; the investment shares in GDP were distinctly below their respective pre-crisis levels. It seems that the damage done by the financial crisis has in this respect meant a delay of a decade or more. The speed of change was swift. For gross capital formation in constant prices China surpassed the value of the USA in 2010 and the value of EU28 in 2012. In 2006 the magnitude of investment in China was still more than 50% lower than in the USA and EU28. In terms of time distance the 2006 value for China was reached in Japan 10 years earlier, 18 years earlier in the USA and more than 30 years earlier EU28. With great speed China reached the value of the USA in only 3 years and that of EU28 in 6 years. Closing remarksAfter slow recovery, growth may be picking up but we need to know where we start from. The fundamentals need to be improved. As the quality of financial regulation has not improved substantially on either side of the Atlantic, these domains are prone to further deterioration anywhere in the world. Even more so, possible further financial crisis could come around if these financial institutions are not properly regulated. FULL TEXT: |
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